Unemployment stands at 4.8% in Australia, having edged up only 0.3% in January. Full-time jobs actually rose a touch when the market thought they woudl fall. Many economists believe 5% or less is full employment so that shows how strong employment in this country has been in the past few years. Australia still has one of the best job markets in the world – for now, at least. The United States economy lost almost 600,000 jobs in one month alone! And Europe is getting worse by the day.

 

Even the Australian Government thinks unemployment could rise to 7% in 2010 as companies sack workers to lower their costs in response to the global financial meltdown. Already, important predictors for future jobs growth – job advertisement surveys, for example, are showing sharply lower numbers. And, anecdotally, more companies are sacking staff. So unemployment must rise.

 

Some of the most bearish forecasters believe unemployment in Australia could pass 10%, which would be consistent with previous recessions here. Perhaps more worrying is the unemployment rate only records those who lose full-time work – it doesn’t those who have their hours cut back or other “underemployed people”. It’s thought that unemployment in the US could be as high as 15% once casual workers and contractors are accounted for.

 

The good news, if you can call it that, is that most of the job losses are occurring for younger people without tertiary qualifications. Sad, but true. In the US, recent jobs data showed tertiary qualified young people received slight pay increases over the year. When the global economy was booming, some people forgot about the true long-term value a degree – not anymore!

 

We’re a bit more optimistic than many forecasters. Sure, unemployment will rise, but let’s not forget it’s coming off a low base and that heaps of interest rate cuts and the government’s big spending package is going to help create – or hold on to – jobs. And, remember that Australian businesses faced a huge skills shortage in the last few years – they couldn’t get enough workers. So it’s possible more companies might be reluctant to let go of good people this year.

 

Unemployment at 6% or even 7% is plausible – though hardly the end of the world, especially for university graduates with good marks. No doubt, growth in graduate salaries will slow and there may be more competition for graduate jobs at some companies.

And it may be harder to find casual or part-time jobs, especially in industries such as hospitality given the downturn in consumer spending. This is where it could really hurt on the jobs front.

So those graduating this year, and who want to stay in Australia, will have to work harder in their interviews, be more prepared and push a bit harder to get the jobs they want.

And some of those who have casual jobs, especially Gen Y, might have to be a bit less pushy – more work, less talk – to hold onto their jobs (more on that in a future column).

But, as we said, the Australian jobs market, at least compared to most countries, is still among the best in the world.

 

What’s your view on the jobs market – is it getting harder to find part-time or full-time work?